Long-term Scenario Forecasts
[Update Feb 7th, 2021]
- Scenario 1: Moderate Vaccine Efficacy - Assumes 25 million courses distributed per month in the future, and efficacy 70% after two doses, 20% after one dose.
- Scenario 2: High Vaccine Efficacy + Hesitant Population - Assumes 25 million courses distributed per month in the future, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. Only 50% of those who are offered, accept the vaccine.
- Scenario 3: No Vaccine!
In all the above scenarios, we assume that the current precautions continue for three weeks after which distancing is reduced to the most lenient setting since May.
Vaccination adminitration rate is estimated based on recent vaccination data.
Under-reporting Scenarios: A key factor that affects long-term forecasts is the ratio of true cases to the reported cases. We show the scenarios for two values of this ratio: 1.1 and 1.5
