Long-term Scenario Forecasts

[Update Feb 7th, 2021]
The following scenarios have been simulated (motivated by the MIDAS Scenario Modeling Hub)
In all the above scenarios, we assume that the current precautions continue for three weeks after which distancing is reduced to the most lenient setting since May.
Vaccination adminitration rate is estimated based on recent vaccination data.
Under-reporting Scenarios: A key factor that affects long-term forecasts is the ratio of true cases to the reported cases. We show the scenarios for two values of this ratio: 1.1 and 1.5